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Tuesday, 16 October 2007

Taverner Poll – Election 2007

The most recent Taverner poll (carried out for the Sydney Morning Herald on the 11th and 12th October) says Labor has 59% of the vote, compared to the Coalition's 41% on a two-party-preferred basis.

The biggest issue affecting how people say they will vote is criticism of the Work Choices policy, even though three in four people do not know of anyone directly affected by the new rules.

Voters are comfortable to give Kevin Rudd a go even though they know very little about him – negatives to Liberal support include concerns over honesty, common belief that they have already had long enough in power and real worries about cost of living.

Close to one in five (19%) who supported Coalition over Labor in 2004 now favour Labor – compared to only 3% switching allegiance to the Coalition. Close to nine in ten who will vote in 2007 for the first time favour Labor.

Philip Mitchell-Taverner says "it's almost inconceivable to expect the anti-Liberal momentum can be arrested and turned around to give the Coalition even a small chance of retaining power. If the preference gap were to be overcome, it would be by far the biggest reversal of opinion ever known in Australian politics.”

For media comment on the most recent Taverner Poll, go to:

ABC
Sydney Morning Herald
The Age

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posted by Tom Mitchell-Taverner

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